You are not better than you think you are

     Imagine you are sitting in a library📚 and a newspaper🗞 was kept on the opposite side. A person whom you have never met entered the room. He read the headline aloud (in a library!😠) and left. Now other person enters the room and asked to guess the first person’s IQ. You made a wild guess. He now asks for your IQ. You now evaluate your data that you have collected since your childhood and again you guessed. You will be 66 percent more accurate when guessing another person IQ than yours (You might give higher IQ score for yours). One of the reasons is because we are a lousy self-evaluator🤯. Another reason is you are not better than you think you are. 

    This is because we have unrealistic optimism. Unrealistic optimism is ignoring the chances that something bad might happen especially when it involves ourselves or we might (and are) think(ing) that we are better than our colleagues. Go to a marriage and ask the couple “Do you think you will get divorced?” and the immediate answer would be “No”. But when you take the divorce rate, it is almost 50% (at least in USA). 

        Two questions were asked to startup founders in a survey. 

a) What is the probability of success for a typical company like yours?

b) What will be your success rate?

    The answer they gave is 50% for the first question and 90% for second question. One of the reasons why I admire Jeff Bezos is because he was being realistic knew while starting Amazon. When he asked his parents for money to start the company, Bezos told his parents that there is 70% chance that they won’t get their money back. Still they gave $100,000💰 which was their total life savings. He gave only 30% as success rate for his company. It has nothing to do with being optimistic and pessimistic but being realistic.


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